Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective

نویسندگان

  • David R. Roberts
  • Andreas Hamann
چکیده

Aim We assess the realism of bioclimate envelope model projections for anticipated future climates by validating ecosystem reconstructions for the late Quaternary with fossil and pollen data. Specifically, we ask: (1) do climate conditions with no modern analogue negatively affect the accuracy of ecosystem reconstructions? (2) are bioclimate envelope model projections biased towards under-predicting forested ecosystems? (3) given a palaeoecological perspective, are potential habitat projections for the 21st century within model capabilities?

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تاریخ انتشار 2012